Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.