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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was blunt language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”