Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
