Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.